Mineral resources exports to reach $175b by 2014-15

Its March issue of the Australian Commodities report stated that the forecast increase mainly reflects an expected rise in mineral resources exports by 19 per cent to $154 billion in 2010-11. This is expected to increase to $175 billion in real terms in 2014-15.
For energy commodities, export earnings are forecast to rise by around 20 per cent to $66 billion in 2010-11, driven largely by higher forecast prices for oil and coal.
For metals and other minerals, export earnings are forecast to increase by around 18 per cent to $88 billion in 2010-11.
A forecast increase in export volumes and higher expected prices for Australian iron ore are the main reasons for this projected rise in earnings from metals and other minerals, according to ABARE.
World trade of iron ore is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 6 per cent between 2009 and 2015, growing to 1.3 billion tonnes by the end of the outlook period. The majority of export growth is expected to come from Australia and Brazil.
Beyond next year, world prices for many energy and minerals commodities are projected to decline in real terms, but to remain above historical averages. The global supply of energy and minerals commodities is projected to increase over the medium term, as investment in new capacity translates into production.
But ABARE’s report stated that a key risk to its generally positive outlook is the timing and strength of the assumed recovery in world economic activity.
It said that Australian energy and minerals production is projected to increase over the medium term, by around 25 per cent in 2014-15 (as compared with 2009-10 volumes) as new mine capacity is commissioned and infrastructure expansions are completed. Minerals production is projected to increase by an average of 4 per cent a year over the period to 2014-15, while energy production is projected to increase by around 5 per cent a year.
ABARA also released on March 1st, a joint report produced with Geoscience Australia which examines the nation’s identified and potential energy resources ranging from fossil fuels and uranium to renewables.
The assessment reviews the factors likely to influence the use of Australia’s energy resources to 2030, including the technologies being developed to extract energy more efficiently and cleanly from existing and new energy sources.
What it found is that Australia’s energy usage in 2030 is expected to differ significantly from that of today under the influence of the 20 per cent Renewable Energy Target and other government policies such as the proposed emissions reduction target.
“Australia’s long-term energy projections show total energy production nearly doubling due to strong export demand, primary energy consumption rising by 35 per cent, and electricity demand increasing by nearly 50 per cent by 2030,” the report stated.
Whilst coal is expected to continue to dominate Australia’s electricity generation, a shift to lower-emissions fuels is expected to result in a significant reduction in coal’s share and increases in gas and renewable energy, particularly wind.